The ‘known unknown’ of the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential effects on the security of the Middle East.The growing international agency of smaller Arab Gulf states (Qatar and the United Arab Emirates amongst others) –and the intra GCC crisis of 2017–.Accordingly, the strained US-Iran dynamics remain at the centre of regional instability with a further potential to escalate into violent incidents such as Iran’s downing of a US drone, attacks on the US base in Iraq and the US killing of key Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leader Qassim Soleimani.The ongoing rivalry between the Saudi-led coalition and Iran and its proxies.Protracted conflicts in the region, from wars in Syria to Libya and Yemen.The rivalry of great powers, combined with the already existing regional rifts between Iran, Saudi Arabia-led Sunni Arab states, Israel and Turkey, has put its negative mark on the region’s stability.Īt the intersection of great-power rivalry and regional competition in the Middle East there are at least five trends that shape the current Middle Eastern strategic environment: The consequences of the Arab uprisings and the decline of the post-Cold War order have led to this competition anew. The Middle East –with its rich hydrocarbons, strategic geopolitical location, key international sea lanes and choke points, from the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab to the Strait of Hormuz– has been a natural location for great power rivalry for years. “The rivalry of great powers, combined with the already existing regional rifts between Iran, Saudi Arabia-led Sunni Arab states, Israel and Turkey, has put its negative mark on the region’s stability”.
The consequences of the Arab Uprisings, the decline of the post-Cold War order and increasing global rivalry between great powers have led to this regional competition anew. Today three external powers –the US, China and Russia– are the leading players behind great power rivalry in the Middle East.
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